By Paul K. Davis, Kim Cragin (Editors)
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Extra info for Social Sciences for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together
That is, terrorism seems to decline in situations where terrorist leaders assess the risk of counterterrorism activities or the loss of popular support as greater than the benefits of the fight, or when they take such extreme actions as to lose popular support. The root-cause factors need not have been resolved. Ascent and Decline Are Different. Popular Support Matters Greatly, But Is Only One Consideration. 7 Descent Does Not Mirror Ascent Root Causes Modes of Decline Constrained civil liberties Success or preliminary success Elite disenfranchisement Burnout, poor succession, loss of leaders Ethnic fractionalization N/A Illegitimacy of state Success or preliminary success State repression Success or preliminary success Lack of opportunity Success or preliminary success N/A Loss of popular support N/A Counterterrorism activities N/A Loss of state support NOTE: N/A = not applicable.
7 compares root causes with the modes of decline. It demonstrates the disconnect between the various factors in our analysis. This disconnect makes sense, since root causes do not account for terrorist decisionmaking or the relationship that emerges between the terrorist group and support populations. In fact, it can be argued that the most likely situations of decline relate to terrorist group decisionmaking. That is, terrorism seems to decline in situations where terrorist leaders assess the risk of counterterrorism activities or the loss of popular support as greater than the benefits of the fight, or when they take such extreme actions as to lose popular support.
Author biographies Appendix B. Potential metrics (Bahney) well as experience in system thinking and modeling (see Appendix A for brief biographies). E. Noricks discusses the controversial subject of terrorism’s root causes; Todd C. Helmus describes what is known about individual-level radicalization; and Christopher Paul covers the issue of how terrorist organizations gain and sustain public support and what Introduction 7 support they in fact need. Claude Berrebi’s chapter is cross-cutting. He reviews the hard empirical evidence on the significance or nonsignificance of some factors treated in other chapters and then comments on the usefulness of a version of the rational-actor model extended to recognize noneconomic utilities (for example, support of a cause).