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By National Research Council, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Committee on National Statistics, Michael Cohen, Francisco Samaniego

The ultimate file of the nationwide study Council's (NRC) Panel on Statistical tools for trying out and comparing safeguard structures (National study Council, 1998) used to be meant to supply large suggestion to the U.S. division of protection (DoD) on present statistical tools and ideas which may be utilized to the developmental and operational trying out and assessment of protection structures. as a consequence, the document contained chapters at the use of trying out as a device of approach improvement; present tools of experimental layout; evaluate tools; equipment for checking out and assessing reliability, availability, and maintainability; software program improvement and checking out; and validation of modeling and simulation to be used in operational try out and evaluate. whereas the exam of any such good selection of issues used to be priceless in aiding DoD comprehend the breadth of difficulties for which statistical equipment will be utilized and delivering path as to how the equipment presently used can be better, there has been, fairly evidently, an absence of aspect in every one area.

To deal with the necessity for additional aspect, DoD agencies-the place of work of the Director of Operational try out and review and the place of work of the below Secretary of safety for Acquisition, expertise, and Logistics-asked the NRC's Committee on nationwide facts to start up a sequence of workshops on statistical concerns proper to safety acquisition. the purpose of every workshop is to notify DoD in regards to the tools that signify the statistical cutting-edge and, via interactions of the statistical and security groups, discover their relevance for DoD application.

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Type B modes correspond to components that are candidates for improvement. These components involve unproven new technology or a new design, or may be off-the-shelf components that require improvement before use. System maturity can be measured as the mean time to failure that is due to A components as a percentage of total system mean time to failure. ) The foundation of IRGS is a process that identifies and mitigates type B failure modes by converting them to type A modes. This conversion is accomplished through an iterative process of testing and analysis.

CONCLUDING REMARKS ON THE MEASUREMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF RELIABILITY GROWTH The reliability growth management processes outlined above, and reliability growth management more generally, require a variety of sources of information on system reliability as key inputs. Especially important are data from developmental and operational testing and from the field performance of related systems. Because operational testing is costly (and occurs late in the budget cycle when there is little possibility of a large reallocation of funds for operational test), only a limited amount of information is typically collected in terms of both the number of replications and the number of separate test environments and scenarios that can be examined.

The estimation process is accomplished as follows. Should the standard estimates of the empirical cumulative distribution functions (ecdf ) for failure times from operational and developmental testing satisfy the property of stochastic precedence, those ecdf ’s are used, unchanged, to estimate the operational and developmental test time-to-failure distributions. However, if the ecdf ’s fail to satisfy stochastic precedence, the ecdf ’s can be “adjusted” in one of several ways to arrive at a pair of estimators that do satisfy stochastic precedence.

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