By Daniel L. Byman, Shahram Chubin, Anoushiravan Ehteshami, Jerrold Green
Faith, nationalism, ethnicity, economics, and geopolitics all are vital in explaining Iran's targets and strategies in its relation-ship with the surface global, as are the agendas of key defense associations and the goals in their leaders. This file assesses Iran's protection coverage in mild of those elements. It examines vast drivers of Iran's protection coverage, describes vital safeguard associations, explores decisionmaking, and reports Iran's family with key nations. The authors finish that Iraq is widely known because the major chance to Iran's Islamic regime and Afghanistan is noticeable as an rising hazard. by contrast, Iran has strong, if now not unavoidably hot, family members with Syria and proven operating ties to Pakistan and Russia. Iran's regulations towards its pals are more and more prudent: it truly is attempting to calm local stress and finish its isolation, even though its regulations towards Israel and the U.S. are usually an exception to this coverage.
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Extra resources for Iran's Security Policy in the Post-Revolutionary Era
According to the formal system, the Faqih works through other bodies in exercising his control. Today, the SCNS, chaired by the President, is the key national defense and security assessment body. Representatives of the Artesh, the IRGC, other security agencies, and the Faqih sit on the council. This forum discusses, calculates, and formulates responses to threats to national security. 5 The response may not have been to the liking of some conservative elements in the IRGC and the broader political establishment (who would have liked a military confrontation with the Taliban in Afghanistan), but the predominant line—escalation without risk of war—championed by the Artesh and several IRGC commanders prevailed.
The new generation of Iranians taking power is more pragmatic and less committed to revolutionary ideology. 1 Persian Nationalism Since the days of the Shah, Iranian leaders have believed that Iran’s size, historical importance, and self-professed cultural superiority merit a significant role for the country in the region. The clerical regime trumpeted nationalism in its war with Iraq to garner domestic support more broadly. 2 Iranian nationalism today, however, is a source of prudence as well as adventurism.
Buchta, Who Rules Iran? p. 4. 3 Informal networks provide even more information. Leaders are likely to be at least aware of important decisions and operations through their personal networks. This mix of complexity and consensus makes predicting decisionmaking difficult. While there is a formal system for decisionmaking, it is often ignored or bypassed. Individuals are constantly tempted to ignore the system, particularly if it is easier to gain a consensus that way. Prediction is made even more difficult because there are many access points into Iranian decisionmaking.