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By P. Arestis, George Hadjimatheou

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Extra info for Introducing Macroeconomic Modelling: An Econometric Study of the United Kingdom

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They make it more likely, however, that predictions will be more accurate than they would otherwise have been. The present model is not used for ex ante forecasting. Unlike the model in this book, forecasting models are bigger, estimated on the basis of quarterly data and continuously updated so as to incorporate recent developments in the economy. In building our annual model for 1957-78 we have been constrained by the availability of only a small number of observations available for estimation.

Acceptance of this principle leads effectively to the adoption of the concept of permanent income - the particular adjustment is then seen as a very partial solution in the light of the permanent income hypothesis. The consumption function used in the empirical work contained in this chapter originates from the permanent income principle and should therefore be seen as a more general formulation than the one based on the particular suggestion explained above - although, in practice, as long as the measurement of permanent income is based on national accounting income, the problem persists.

88. 89) where m is the number of restrictions (in this case the five restrictions referred to above), n = number of observations, SSR2 = the sum of the squares of the residua1s from the unrestricted form, and SSR 3 = sum of the squares of the residua1s from the restricted form. SSR3 is expected to be greater than SSR2 since the former, un1ike the 1atter, is obtained from a constrained minimisation. However, if the restrictions are correct, the two SSR shou1d not differ significant1y - thus the x~ test, which is a 1ike1ihoodratio-based asymptotic test (Harvey, 1981, pp.

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