By Norman J. Glickman
Econometric research of nearby structures: Explorations in version development and coverage research offers details pertinent to using neighborhood econometric versions for forecasting and coverage research. This booklet offers macroeconomic forecasting for metropolitan regions.
Organized into 5 chapters, this ebook starts off with an summary of the matter of forecasting neighborhood financial job. this article then analyzes the important forms, financial base, input–output, and econometric of the neighborhood monetary versions. different chapters ponder a large-scale econometric version for the Philadelphia quarter in response to time sequence info to make forecasts for output, employment, costs, wages, source of revenue, monetary job, and different fiscal aggregates. This booklet discusses in addition the categories of forecasting versions utilized in nearby research. the ultimate bankruptcy offers with econometric thoughts to endure at the challenge of local monetary forecasting.
This publication is a priceless source for economists, neighborhood coverage makers, and govt officers.
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Additional info for Econometric Analysis of Regional Systems. Explorations in Model Building and Policy Analysis
120-124] of the model, it is questionable whether this work represents a marked improvement over the base model. The author also avoids the difficult problem of forecasting money wage rates. Instead, real wages are said to grow at an exponential rate, influenced only by technical change and capital-labor substitution. Local unemployment is said to have no influence upon real wages. 31 Thus Bell estimates real wages as a function of "time" only. 7%. Some questions remain. 785 is due to productivity growth?
7%. Some questions remain. 785 is due to productivity growth? What part of the wage growth can be attributed to capital-labor substitution? Since Bell provides no answers to these important questions, the reader can find out very little about the labor market in Massachusetts. Finally, Bell estimates net migration as a function of the difference 32 between expected labor supply and labor demand (both lagged one year), a measure of the tightness of the labor market. 500. Although this is a poor result, it is better than those of other analysts in forecasting yearto-year levels of net migration.
Given the forecasts Y;*, and the structural coefficients - 1 in the ( I — A ) matrix, the total industry output necessary to support final and interindustry demand is given by the solution of ( 1 9 ) 12 for X . This is known as consistent forecasting, since output in each sector is consistent with the demands from both final and interindustry sources. Input-output has been used in this way for forecasts of 13 national and regional economies for many years. Input-output can also be employed for impact or multiplier analysis.