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By Lyle E. Schaller

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Does that trend line tell us something? How many people were baptized here during each of the past dozen years? What does that trend line say? ) 10. How many new members were received by confirmation or by confession of faith or reaffirmation of vows or adult baptism during each of the past dozen years? What does that trend line tell us? (This number often will be a reflection of the age of today's adult members rather than an indicator of the evangelistic vitality. For example, the suburban church with many couples in their late thirties and early forties may be receiving a large number of youth as new members by confirmation.

Incremental Change or Magic Bullet? Another way of looking at this point is to go back to Esther Brown's comment that Jim Haines followed a strategy of incremental change. He did not expect that any one change would be decisive. His Grand Design apparently consisted of nine major strategic components plus a series of tactical points. It was a one-changeat-a-time strategy to be implemented over a long period of time. By contrast, ad hoc committees often begin on the assumption that the world can be changed by one critical move.

Frequently powerful pressures exist to make the number-one priority finding new members who will help perpetuate the status quo. " One of the reasons for asking a special ad hoc study committee to focus on expanding the number of entry points, rather than turning that over to standing committees, is to avoid these diversionary pleas.

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