By CMR of Xiamen University
This publication is a quarterly forecast and research record at the chinese language economic system. it's released two times a 12 months and provides ongoing end result from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic version (CQMM),” a study venture on the heart for Macroeconomic study (CMR) at Xiamen college. according to the CQMM version, the study crew forecast significant macroeconomic symptoms for the following eight quarters, together with the speed of GDP development, the CPI, fixed-asset funding, resident intake and overseas exchange. whilst it specializes in simulation of present macroeconomic rules in China. as well as supporting readers comprehend China’s fiscal development and coverage consultant, this booklet has 3 major pursuits: to aid readers comprehend China’s monetary functionality; to forecast the most macroeconomic symptoms for the following eight quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.
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Extra info for China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2014
1, the baseline and actual quarterly GDP growth rate almost keep the consistent trend, and the scenario assumption quarterly growth rate after the corresponding reduction in each quarter is lower than the actual (Fig. 2 2 The CQMM is a quarterly model. Therefore, when substituted into the model, we need split the annual drop of economic growth into quarterly change. approach is: we first calculate the annual change of GDP after growth reduction, and then spilt the new annual economic data into new quarterly economic data based on the actual share of each quarter.
8). In conclusion, even though the external demand will continue to rebound and money supply will continue to increase, the economic growth still tend to slow down. 5 % set by the Central Government will be achievable. 37 %. That means under the present growth pattern, the effect of micro-stimulus policy on relieving the downward pressure to maintain stable growth is diminishing. At present, the micro-stimulus policies aiming at stable growth heavily relies on investment expansion. 57 % over previous year.
Although the 4-trillion massive stimulus package announced in 2008 had prevented the GDP growth from declining below 9 % during 2008–2012, it forced China’s economic growth to rely on investment deeply further. 1 Reducing the Economic Growth Target 31 industries as well as the expansion of real estate inventory today is also one of the consequences the massive stimulus package. Not to mention the problem of corporate debt and government debt caused by the long-term credit binged in financial system.